Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 11.129949 13.028697 15.100906 17.523491 20.270796 23.282249 26.825468
2025-01-12 8.006851 10.548330 13.600483 17.503620 22.326778 28.053710 35.326615
2025-01-19 6.072309 8.867214 12.510302 17.530448 24.180732 32.591704 43.921570
2025-01-26 5.199187 8.275223 12.564834 18.842279 27.626294 39.290526 55.720571
2025-02-02 4.427244 7.623753 12.361193 19.672572 30.401450 45.253327 66.975249
2025-02-09 3.823399 7.078795 12.178070 20.430612 33.057187 51.177419 78.546689
2025-02-16 3.186817 6.342147 11.561494 20.405928 34.488425 55.395880 87.936868
2025-02-23 2.587840 5.540750 10.698762 19.843801 34.978770 58.191408 95.362736
2025-03-02 2.076377 4.786421 9.784561 19.048590 34.964972 60.147309 101.574323
2025-03-09 1.760202 4.339509 9.334546 18.964033 36.058047 63.840582 110.612724
2025-03-16 1.471683 3.885381 8.795349 18.637767 36.679377 66.778198 118.590394
2025-03-23 1.356642 3.783703 8.917118 19.526831 39.464184 73.399619 132.816133
2025-03-30 1.192294 3.542345 8.738734 19.854876 41.330983 78.706182 145.378326
2025-04-06 1.024878 3.256177 8.425302 19.884468 42.660947 83.203370 156.900742
2025-04-13 0.883894 3.002335 8.140329 19.932062 44.018435 87.824774 168.889490
2025-04-20 0.852976 3.039558 8.518271 21.401608 48.222737 97.733612 190.486173
2025-04-27 0.790485 2.972262 8.640038 22.329338 51.425753 106.010361 209.632602
2025-05-04 0.729366 2.894013 8.722435 23.174605 54.519960 114.250028 229.099307
2025-05-11 0.633304 2.680805 8.433863 23.147385 55.821889 119.224040 242.946460
2025-05-18 0.526199 2.397953 7.915657 22.521267 55.810776 121.700309 252.357358
2025-05-25 0.427061 2.107822 7.322489 21.634955 55.152301 122.867179 259.377817
2025-06-01 0.368931 1.948998 7.066462 21.540685 56.200411 127.405257 272.887711
2025-06-08 0.311485 1.771392 6.722072 21.176840 56.607972 130.677994 284.130930